Friday 25 January 2019

Brexit, part n

With yesterday's new that the peoples vote campaigners have given up - for the moment - on forcing another referendum on parliament, it looks likely that the Brexit probability waveforms are finally collapsing.

It now seems there are three main ways forward:
  1. Revoke A50 (this splits into two other options, permanently or temporarily).
  2. May's deal, or something akin to it.
  3. Hard, crash-out no-deal Brexit.
It feels like we're finally reaching an end-game for Brexit, or at least this phase of it.

Since option 3 is the default, it sadly still has to be the favourite. However there is probably a majority in parliament to avoid a no-deal Brexit, and not enough support for revocation. The ERG'ers are also starting to show some flexibility, so it may be that the dead corpse of May's deal is reanimated in some form.

On a related point, it appears that polling on Brexit is being confused by people who say they want a 'no deal' Brexit, when they actually want to remain - they think that no deal means staying in.

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